Introducing AI-Weather-Based Fundamental Wind Forecasts

AI-powered forecasts with Jua.ai 

The new AI-weather-based fundamentals integrate forecasts from Jua.ai, a partner known for leveraging advanced AI technologies tailored to the energy domain. These forecasts complement our existing numerical weather model inputs from ECMWF and GFS. 

Unlike traditional numerical models, Jua.ai has created a revolutionary "large physics model" that processes petabytes of data and utilises innovative data sources. This approach gives Insight by Volue the possibility to create wind production forecasts with unprecedented accuracy and granularity, providing deterministic wind forecasts for all EU regions covered by our current wind model, with a 20-day horizon. A corresponding set of forecasts for Japan will follow in a future release. 

Precision forecasting for better decision support 

The AI-weather-based wind forecasts dynamically update throughout the day, synchronising with new weather data availability and providing a second opinion of the weather-driven status quo. Data can be retrieved and viewed via our API and web interface. 

Benefits of AI forecasting 

Integrating AI into weather forecasting yields measurable improvements: 

• Accuracy: Internal benchmarks indicate that our AI-weather-based forecasts achieve an average ~3.8% lower MAE (Mean Absolute Error) compared to ECMWF for the day-ahead period. For some regions, accuracy improves by up to ~18%. These benchmarking results are also confirmed by customer feedback. 
• Decision support: The new forecasts offer an additional, reliable data source to refine decision-making processes. 

What’s next: upcoming enhancements 

To provide even more value, we are working on additional products: 

• Increased update frequency: Moving from 4 to 8 updates daily, with the goal of 24 times a day, providing more timely insights. 

• Local asset forecasts: Detailed wind forecasts tailored to specific unit locations, using a < 1km grid resolution. 

• Ensemble forecasts: Adding probabilistic predictions to complement deterministic outputs, offering a more comprehensive view of uncertainty and variability. 

Looking ahead to 2025, we plan to expand AI-weather-based forecasts to other fundamental model forecasts, including solar photovoltaic (SPV) and consumption forecasts. 

Transform your forecasting today 

AI-weather-based fundamentals wind forecasts mark a significant leap forward in energy production forecasting. By leveraging advanced AI technology and increasing both accuracy and possibility of higher update frequency, Insight by Volue provides the tools to help you stay ahead in a rapidly evolving energy market.